TL;DR
- Global commercial insurance is in a softening phase. Marsh reports Q1 2026 global commercial rates down 5%, the seventh consecutive quarter of reductions after seven years of increases.
- The IMEA (India, Middle East and Africa) composite, which includes South Africa, was down 10% in Q1 2026, with property down 10%, casualty down 7% and cyber down 14%.
- South African cyber is flat, D&O is flat to −5%, and PI is flat to +5% per Marsh Q1 2026 IMEA data.
- Hard pockets remain: political violence, war-related marine, US-exposed casualty, distressed motor fleets, catastrophe-exposed assets, poor-loss accounts and complex construction or energy projects.
- The defining feature of 2026 is not blanket hardening, but sharp differentiation between well-managed risks (which get cheaper) and difficult risks (which do not).
Table of Contents
- The 2026 market at a glance: soft, not hard
- What the global data actually says
- Rate movement is not premium movement
- How this translates for SA buyers, line by line
- Where the market is still hard in 2026
- How to make the soft market work for you
- Managing hard pockets when they hit you
- Berkley Risk, Berkley Re and Lloyd’s access
- Outlook for 2026 and 2027
- Frequently asked questions
The 2026 market at a glance: soft, not hard
The commercial insurance cycle turned in late 2024. After roughly seven years of continuous rate increases, global commercial rates fell 1% in Q3 2024, the first quarterly reduction in that period, and have continued to decline every quarter since. By Q1 2026, Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index recorded a 5% quarterly reduction across global commercial lines, the seventh consecutive quarter of softening.
Lloyd’s own 2026 Market Oversight Plan expressly refers to maintaining underwriting discipline in a “softening market”. Aon, in its Q1 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights, describes EMEA property, casualty, cyber and directors’ and officers’ liability as buyer-friendly, and expects soft conditions in the UK and London markets to continue for another 18 to 24 months.
For South African commercial buyers, this matters because SA specialty capacity is heavily connected to London markets and to global reinsurance capital. When those capital pools compete for business, that competition reaches South African renewals.
What the global data actually says (Q1 2026)
Global Q1 2026 rate movement
| Segment | Q1 2026 rate movement |
|---|
| Global commercial | −5% |
| Global property | −9% |
| Global financial and professional lines | −5% |
| Global cyber | −5% |
| Global casualty | +3% (driven primarily by US-exposed liability) |
Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index Q1 2026.
IMEA (India, Middle East, Africa) Q1 2026 rate movement
| IMEA segment | Q1 2026 rate movement |
|---|
| IMEA composite | −10% |
| Property | −10% |
| Casualty | −7% |
| Financial and professional lines | −6% |
| Cyber | −14% |
| South African cyber | Flat |
| South African D&O | Flat to −5% |
| South African PI | Flat to +5% |
Source: Marsh IMEA Insurance Rates Q1 2026.
These numbers point to softening in most lines, not hardening. The IMEA composite is one of the softer regional movements globally.
Rate movement is not premium movement
Individual businesses often see premiums rise even in a soft rate environment. The total premium your business pays reflects more than just the rate insurers apply to your risk:
- Increased turnover, payroll or asset values
- Inflationary adjustments to sums insured (rebuild cost, contents replacement, revenue projections)
- Recent claims
- New locations, vehicles, activities or exposures
- Lower deductibles or broader cover added at renewal
- Valuation corrections after independent surveys
- Insurer-specific remediation of previously underpriced accounts
- Poor risk information at submission stage
If your premium is up 15% but your sum insured is up 10% and your revenue is up 20%, your rate has actually fallen. Understanding this distinction is central to reading renewal outcomes correctly and avoiding the assumption that a rising premium means a hard market.
How this translates for SA buyers, line by line
Property and business interruption
Marsh reports IMEA property down 10% in Q1 2026, and global property down 9%, with declines of roughly 5 to 20% across the Middle East and Africa region. Well-managed properties with good data, current valuations and clean claims records are attracting competitive terms.
Property risks that remain difficult can still face significant scrutiny or increases where there are:
- Fire-protection deficiencies
- Flood or hail exposure
- Waste, recycling, food or chemical occupancy
- Inadequate declared values
- Poor maintenance
- Large single-site concentration
- Unfavourable claims experience
The correct message for property in 2026 is risk differentiation, not general hardening.
Cyber
Marsh reports global cyber down 5%, IMEA cyber down 14%, and South African cyber flat in Q1 2026. Aon describes cyber and technology E&O as a buyer-friendly and competitive market with ample capacity.
Cyber softness is not permanent. Rising ransomware severity, third-party breach liability and AI-related exposures may eventually moderate that softness. For now, buyers with strong controls (multi-factor authentication, backup discipline, endpoint protection, incident response readiness) are seeing more capacity and more competitive quotations than in 2022 or 2023.
Clients with weak controls, prior incidents or exposures in high-risk sectors can still face restricted cover, sub-limits or coverage refusal. That is risk selection, not a general cyber hard market.
Professional indemnity
SA PI is flat to +5% per Marsh IMEA data, one of the tighter positions in a broadly soft market. PI outcomes depend heavily on:
- The profession (medical malpractice, financial advice, legal, engineering design)
- Retro dates, run-off requirements and continuity of cover
- Contract wording and exposure to fitness-for-purpose obligations
Berkley Risk covers PI in detail in our article on professional indemnity for engineers and consultants.
Directors’ and officers’ liability
SA D&O is flat to −5% per Marsh IMEA data. Global D&O remains buyer-friendly, particularly for well-governed listed and private companies.
Casualty and public liability
Global casualty is up 3%, but that is driven primarily by US-exposed liability. Pure South African casualty risks without US exposure are more moderate. Businesses with US operations, US customers or US-facing product exposure should expect a different market to those without.
Motor
Motor is described by Aon as moderate globally. Distressed fleets, poor claims experience or high-mileage commercial operations can still face material rate action or restricted capacity.
Construction and engineering
Aon describes global construction insurance as increasingly favourable. WTW’s Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 Spring Update: Construction describes stability in most areas, with continued pressure in specific casualty and capacity-constrained segments.
South African construction risks that remain difficult include large CAR/EAR with complex risk profiles, tunnelling, mining, prototypical technology, projects with weak risk controls, and those with material claims history. General 15% to 45% increases across construction are not the current market norm.
Marine
Standard marine cargo cover is generally competitive. War-related marine, particularly on Red Sea and East African routes, has hardened materially. Rate-on-line increases for marine war have been sharp, capacity has contracted, and route selection has become a working factor in placement.
Berkley Risk explores this in detail in our article on how the Red Sea crisis is reshaping SA marine insurance in 2026.
Political risk and political violence
This is the clearest hardening area in 2026, but the distinction between related but separate covers is important:
- Political risk: expropriation, nationalisation, breach of contract by government
- Political violence: riots, strikes, civil commotion. Capacity in IMEA has contracted materially and rates-on-line have risen
- Terrorism: related but distinct market
- War on land: separate specialised cover
- Marine war: particularly hardened on Middle East and Red Sea routes
- Contract frustration: political-risk sub-cover, still available
- Currency inconvertibility: political-risk sub-cover, tightening for higher-risk sovereigns
- Sovereign non-payment: political-risk sub-cover, similar picture
Middle East instability has generated sharp increases in aviation, marine hull and cargo, and political-violence pricing, but Marsh notes the effect has principally been confined to risks in or connected to the affected region rather than affecting political-risk cover globally.
Where the market IS still hard in 2026
Not everything has softened. The pockets that remain challenging in the current market:
- Political violence and civil unrest exposure
- Marine war (particularly Red Sea, East African and Middle East routes)
- US-exposed casualty (any liability with US claimant potential)
- Distressed motor fleets
- Catastrophe-exposed assets (coastal flood, high-hail zones, wildfire zones)
- Complex construction and energy projects (large CAR/EAR, mining, tunnelling, prototypical technology)
- Poor-loss accounts (any line, any sector)
- Risks with material data or governance deficiencies
The defining feature of 2026 is sharp differentiation. A well-managed South African business with clean data is likely to see improved renewal terms. A business with the wrong risk profile or inadequate risk information may see the opposite.
How to make the soft market work for you
For most SA commercial buyers, 2026 is buyer-friendly. The strategies that unlock the value:
- Fresh, comprehensive submissions. Capacity flows to well-presented risks.
- Independent valuations. Current declared values eliminate under-insurance and reduce insurer scepticism.
- Multi-quote panel. Competitive tension is central to accessing soft-market pricing.
- Deductible optimisation. Higher self-insured retentions can produce material premium reductions where cash-flow allows.
- Layered placement. For larger programmes, an insurance tower with a primary layer and specialist excess layers can access more competitive capacity than a single-carrier placement.
- Co-insurance structures. Sharing risk across multiple insurers can unlock capacity that single-insurer placement cannot.
- Broker specialisation. Brokers with Lloyd’s and London-market access typically bring more capacity options for specialty lines.
Managing hard pockets when they hit you
If your specific business falls into one of the remaining hard segments, the tactics differ:
- Engage the market earlier: 90 to 120 days before renewal, not 30
- Present risk-improvement documentation (fire protection upgrades, cyber security investments, claims-cause analyses)
- Consider parametric or catastrophe-response cover where relevant
- For political violence and war-related marine, work with brokers who have direct access to specialty markets
- Review whether Sasria or specialist political-violence cover better fits the exposure
- For US-exposed casualty, structure the programme with US-admitted and offshore layers appropriately
Berkley Risk, Berkley Re and Lloyd’s access
Berkley Risk is an FSCA-licensed insurance broker (FSP #54407) that arranges specialist commercial insurance for South African businesses.
Through Berkley Re’s Lloyd’s Open Market Correspondent (OMC) status and its London-market relationships, the Berkley group can facilitate open-market access for qualifying specialist risks, subject to applicable licensing, placement arrangements and insurer appetite. This complements the domestic commercial insurance market, particularly for specialty, high-value or complex risks that benefit from Lloyd’s syndicate capacity or specialist reinsurance.
The value of that access is highest for risks that need capacity or expertise not readily available in the SA domestic market: political risk, complex marine, specialty engineering, high-limit professional indemnity, and specialist cyber. Lloyd’s own South African placement guidance sets out the applicable arrangements.
Outlook for 2026 and 2027
Based on current data:
- Softening is expected to continue in most lines through 2026 and likely into 2027, particularly in property, D&O and cyber
- Aon’s UK/London view sees soft conditions for another 18 to 24 months, though US-exposed casualty remains challenging
- Any material catastrophe event, insurer capital contraction or ransomware severity spike could moderate cyber softness
- Political violence and marine war remain event-driven markets. Capacity availability can change quickly with new conflict escalation
The broad direction is favourable for SA commercial buyers, but the trajectory is not linear or uniform. Individual risks should be assessed on their own merits rather than on a general market narrative.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the South African commercial insurance market hard in 2026?
No, not broadly. Global and IMEA rate data from Marsh shows Q1 2026 was the seventh consecutive quarter of softening. Some specific segments (political violence, war-related marine, distressed motor, US-exposed casualty, poor-loss accounts) remain hard, but the overall market is buyer-friendly for most well-managed risks.
Why is my premium going up if the market is soft?
Premium and rate are different. Your total premium can rise because your revenue grew, your sums insured were adjusted for inflation, you added locations or activities, you had a recent claim, or your risk information at submission was incomplete. Ask your broker to break out the rate change from the exposure change.
Which lines are actually hardening in 2026?
Political violence, war-related marine (especially Red Sea and East African routes), US-exposed casualty, distressed motor fleets, and complex construction or energy projects. Everything else, including property, standard marine cargo, cyber, D&O and most PI, is generally competitive or softening.
How much have cyber rates changed?
Marsh Q1 2026 shows global cyber down 5%, IMEA cyber down 14%, and South African cyber flat. That is a very different picture from 2022 or 2023 when cyber rates were rising 25% to 60%. The soft cyber market may not last indefinitely, but it is the current position.
What is Lloyd’s and why does it matter for SA insurance?
Lloyd’s is a London-based specialist insurance and reinsurance market. Through Berkley Re’s Lloyd’s Open Market Correspondent (OMC) status, the Berkley group can facilitate open-market access for qualifying specialist risks, subject to applicable licensing and placement arrangements. Lloyd’s capacity matters for specialty and complex risks in SA where domestic capacity is limited.
Should I move to a new broker or insurer to capture the softening market?
Not necessarily. A well-structured renewal with your current broker can capture the benefits of a soft market. If your broker cannot access competitive alternative quotes, or cannot explain rate versus premium movements, that is a signal worth considering. Panel-broking or multi-quote strategies can validate the market price on your risks.
Will the softening continue into 2027?
Current market commentary from Aon suggests soft conditions in UK/London markets are likely to continue for another 18 to 24 months, with US-exposed casualty as the notable exception. That view could change if there is a material catastrophe event, a large casualty loss trend, or insurer capital contraction.
Review your 2026 renewal strategy with a Lloyd’s-connected broker
If your renewal is coming up in 2026, this is a market to test properly. Well-managed risks can secure better rates, broader cover or improved programme structures. Difficult risks require earlier engagement and better presentation.
Berkley Risk arranges specialist commercial insurance for South African businesses via Berkley Re’s Lloyd’s OMC access and domestic markets. For specialty, complex or high-value risks that benefit from Lloyd’s syndicate capacity, contact Berkley Risk to discuss your 2026 renewal strategy.
Berkley Risk is an FSCA-authorised financial services provider. FSP #54407.
